As I write this note on Fri, Sept 26, there have been 159 regular season games played by every team in Major League Baseball. And yet, in spite of that amount of games, there are still playoff spots in the 12-team(six per each league) field for MLB. There are still a couple of divisional races to be decided in the American League as only one of the three divisions has been clinched. In the National League, there is a more solidified picture with all three division winners locked in, but two of them are still battling for home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs(should either of those two teams advance far enough to the World Series). Also in the NL, an insane wild-card chase is occurring for the third and final Wild Card spot. There are three ball clubs within two games of each other, one of them is hanging on for dear life in trying to fend off the other two teams, which have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over that specific team. In the American League, there is also an interesting Wild Card story developing. After a load of teams who were in contention for that coveted final Wild Card spot were mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, there remains a battle between three(or four) teams for the final two Wild Card spots.

How is this all even possible? The answer: Parity. These past couple of seasons have proved to show that MLB teams are competing on a more competitively-balanced schedule due to fewer division games and a minimum three-game season series against every team from the opposite league. With fewer division games to separate division opponents from each other, there are nailbitting races coming down to the wire in both leagues. The playoff matchups for the Wild Card round have not been set yet, far from it. The “bye seeds” of the top-two division winners in both leagues haven’t even been locked into their “brackets” yet, with competition galore and every game counting, even for those teams who have clinched a playoff berth and/or division title. So, let’s get into all of it and break down each race and the series that will be played by each team still vying for a playoff spot or division title in this whacky final weekend of regular season baseball.

Leading-Off: Division Winners Have Been Decided In All Three NL Divisions, But Home-Field Advantage And A Final Wild Card Spot Are Still Up For Grabs

Let’s start first with the National League, where each divisional race has been decided. The Milwaukee Brewers were the first team to clinch a playoff berth and they eventually won the NL Central after a strong middle part of the season that had them surge ahead of the other teams in their division. The Brewers are still competing with the Philadelphia Phillies for the “top seed” in the National League and home-field advantage throughout the entire playoffs(both of them are well ahead of the best teams in the American League at this point). The Phillies clinched a playoff berth and the NL East division title not long after Milwaukee took care of its clinching business and both of them are well ahead of the lowest-record division winner in the National League. That team is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who after a year of struggles offensively and defensively along with loads of injuries and failures by their pitching staff, managed to win their four consecutive NL West division title(their 12th in the last 13 seasons). The Dodgers are locked into the 3-seed in the National League, meaning that they will have to wait and find out who their opponent will be for the best-of-3 Wild Card series that they will host at Dodger Stadium in a few days time. As for the Phillies and Brewers, the 1 and 2 seeds still have to be decided. Milwaukee holds the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Philadelphia after they won the season series by a margin of 4 wins to two. So, all the Brew Crew have to do is win one game in their upcoming home weekend series against the Cincinnati Reds and they will have home-field throughout the entire postseason secure. This will also give them foreknowledge in who they will face in the NLDS, as the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are both locked in to the top two Wild Card spots in the NL. The Phillies have the convenience of hosting the struggling Minnesota Twins in their regular season home series finale, so if they sweep Minnesota and the Brewers somehow get swept by the desperate Reds(get to them in a bit), then home-field advantage in the National League will go through Citizen’s Bank Park in South Philly. But if both these teams finish with the same record(such as 97-65), then the top seed in the NL playoff field will be Milwaukee. Intra-league games really do count when MLB got rid of “Game 163s” to decide any playoff field tiebreakers(or playoff berths for that matter).

Not having a Game 163 could come back to haunt some of the teams vying for the final playoff spot available in the National League. There are three teams who still have a chance to claim that 6 seed spot that has shown to be good fortune for two NL teams that have gone on to win the pennant in that position. One of those two teams who had a good run as the 6 seed in the NL are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who made a thrilling playoff run in 2023 to get to the World Series, where they lost in five games to another Wild Card pennant winner in the Texas Rangers. The D-Backs were robbed of being the 6-seed last season as they had to watch a hurricane-induced doubleheader played between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Sept. 30, 2024. If one of the teams swept the doubleheader, then Arizona would sneak in as the 6 seed. Alas both the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader at Truist Park and both clinched playoff berths against each other on the same day. The “Snakes” were the ones left with the short end of the stick and they are in a similar predicament again after they lost two out of three games to the Dodgers in their home dome of Chase Field in downtown Phoenix. Arizona was lucky to have a split 3-3 final homestand against the Phillies and Los Angeles, but they are now behind the two other teams vying for that final Wild Card spot.

The Cincinnati Reds have a chance to make their first postseason appearance after a full 162-game season since 2013(they made the playoffs in 2020 as an expanded third-place Wild Card following a 60-game season) and they are one game ahead of the D-Backs, but one game behind the team currently holding onto that last spot. The Reds have had a good season being managed by Terry Francona, who returned to the dugout after “retiring” in 2023 as manager of the Cleveland Guardians. With a big star shortstop in Elly De La Cruz leading them, Cincinnati has somehow stayed in the race in spite of disappointing defeats to teams with lesser records than them. Most recently, they lost their final home series of the regular season at Great American Ballpark against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who beat the Reds in an extra-inning game on Wed, Sept 24 to win the series. But thanks to an incredible catch by right fielder Noelvi Marte in the ninth inning of yesterday’s game, the Reds managed to not get swept and now have a legit chance to clinch that final spot. Facing a Brewers team still competing for home-field advantage on the road won’t be an easy task, but Cincinnati is hungry to get that final berth and they also have the head-to-head advantage over that team currently holding down the final Wild Card spot.

The New York Mets were able to get lucky in 2024 in this Wild Card madness that had to be decided on the day after the regular season ended due to Hurricane Helene postponing two games against the Atlanta Braves. The Mets are seeking more Wild Card fortune on the final weekend of the season this year, as they have stumbled since mid-June and have fallen from being a team in legitimate contention for the NL East division crown to a ballclub just simply looking to be the third Wild Card for the second straight season. After an ugly slump at the beginning of this month, the team from Queens has done a bit better to win some games and get closer to securing that final playoff spot in the National League. At the very least, they won a series that they needed to have as they just took two out of three games against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Having a come-from-behind victory on Tues, Sept 23 and barely squeaking out an 8-5 victory on Thur, Sept 25, the Mets still have a chance to clinch this weekend. But their margin for error is thin as they must go down to South Beach to play against the Miami Marlins, who have had a relatively good season that will render them just a few games short of the playoffs. The Mets and Marlins have actually split their first 10 games played against each other, so this will be no cakewalk for New York, who needs to win two games and have the Reds lose two games and for Arizona to lose one game in order to clinch that final playoff spot.

That’s just one clinching scenario for the final NL Wild Card spot, with the Reds being able to take that spot if they tie with both New York and Arizona, because they won the season series against both of those teams. The Diamondbacks need the most help as they play a three-game road series against the San Diego Padres, who still have a chance to gain the top Wild Card spot in the NL over the Cubs(that chance is slight though, if the Cubs win just one game or the Padres lose one out of three games, then that series between them will occur at Wrigley Field). For Arizona, they would need the Mets to lose at least two out of three and for the Reds to do the same while sweeping San Diego. That would guarantee the D-Backs the final Wild Card spot, but if they win two out of three while the Mets and Cincinnati both get swept in their series, then they would also be in the playoffs. So, Arizona needs at least a series win over the Padres and some help at minimum to get into the playoffs. The paths for Cincinnati and New York are a bit easier and less complicated, so whoever is that six seed will gain the right to play the Dodgers in Los Angeles in a best-of-three Wild Card series. These teams definitely need all the luck and breaks they can get down the stretch. Okay, that was a doozy with the National League. But the American League is even more insane, as shown below.

Next Up: American League Insanity Part One: Two Divisions Still Yet To Be Decided Due To Chokejobs By Two Teams Who Have Led Those Divisions Since Summer Began At The Earliest

So, onto the AL playoff races, which are a big hot popping mess of parity-induced psychosis. There are only three teams who have clinched a playoff berth at this point and only one of them has clinched a division title. As for the other three berths, there are still two division races and jockeying for Wild Card spots that are going on in the American League playoff picture. So let’s first start with the divisions. The only team to clinch a division title so far are the Seattle Mariners, who have had a post-trade deadline surge and a strong September to win their first AL West division title since 2001. The Mariners sailed well ahead of the two other teams in the division that had gotten close to challenging them and they overtook one of those teams(now in danger of missing the postseason entirely). With a strong home record this season, Seattle proves to be a dangerous force in the playoffs and they have also clinched a bye from the Wild Card round due to one of those tight division races putting their record well ahead of the two teams vying for that division’s crown. The Mariners also have a chance to clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs if their record finishes above that of the division winner of the other division up for grabs in the AL still. But they do not have the head-to-head edge over either of those two teams, so they need to finish with a better record than either of those two teams to gain home-field advantage. Seattle will be hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend at T-Mobile Park and that is a good thing, since L.A is locked into the 3 seed in the National League and don’t have much to play for other than more positive momentum entering the postseason.

As for one of the close division races in the American League yet to be determined, the AL East is now going to be decided between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, who both have had good solid seasons in 2025. The Yankees held the division lead through the first half of the season, but then they played the Blue Jays in Canada in late June-early July and were swept in that series. Toronto took the division lead at that time and had held it solidly in their possession for the next few months. But over these past couple of weeks, the Jays have struggled a little bit in losing a couple of series, including against the Boston Red Sox, who are competing for a Wild Card spot after being eliminated from division winning territory with a win by Toronto on Thur, Sept 25. The Blue Jays avoided sweeps against the Kansas City Royals and Boston, but they are now tied with the Bronx Bombers for first in the AL East. Toronto holds the head-to-head advantage over the Yankees in winning the season series over them, so if they both have the same record by the end of this weekend, the Blue Jays will be the division winners. Both teams will be playing home series against division teams, as the Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto hosts the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Yankees want to win the division, they have to beat Baltimore two games out of three at least and have the Blue Jays lose two out of three against Tampa Bay. If the Jays win two out of three and New York loses the series against the Orioles, then Toronto wins the division. But if the Blue Jays lose one game against the Rays and the Yankees sweep Baltimore, then New York wins the division. Very little margin for error there. Whoever finishes with more wins overall will be AL East division champion(and potentially hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, depending on how Seattle does against the Dodgers).

The same can be said for the American League Central, which went from being a division gift-wrapped for one team to win and clinch to a two-horse race between division rivals due to that one team choking and another team being on a hot streak that has put them into the throes of postseason contention or elimination. The AL Central was under the unquestioned control of the Detroit Tigers for pretty much the whole season, as the Tigers held massive double-digit leads over whoever was in second place in the division for the majority of the stretch in between May and August. But something changed starting at the beginning of this month, as Detroit started losing series against teams that they should have beaten. Losing two-out of three against the Mets, Chicago White Sox, and Marlins was peculiar. But then they got swept against the Cleveland Guardians, who are desperate to sneak into the postseason for a second straight year under Stephen Vogt. Then, they got swept by the Atlanta Braves on their home field to conclude a sour 0-6 final homestand. Yikes. Cleveland was right behind them, by one game, and the Tigers had to go play them at Progressive Field. They lost the first two games of that series and they also lost the season series against the Guardians, who now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit for the division lead. The Tigers thankfully won the series finale in Cleveland to stay even with their divisional foes on the banks of Lake Erie and that win ended a poorly-timed eight-game losing streak by the Tigers. You don’t want to have an 8-game losing streak this time of year, just ask the Texas Rangers, who had an eight-game skid that recently ended but knocked them completely out of playoff contention. Detroit is still in a good position, but they don’t have much margin for error as they have to go on the road to play the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Boston is one game ahead of Detroit for the second Wild Card in the American League and that leads us to Part Two of this AL playoff palooza crisis.

Bottom Third Of Order: American League Insanity Part Two: Wild Cards Up For Grabs As Astros, Tigers/Cleveland, And A Trio Combo Of AL East Teams Could End Up In Seeds 4-6

Oh boy, do we have a Wild Card Chase here. The top Wild card in the American League will either be the Yankees or Blue Jays(currently it’s New York) in whoever doesn’t win the AL East(such a nice convenience when compared to the years of old when the pennant winner was decided without a League Championship Series or pre-Wild Card era for the two division winners that did face off in the LCS). But those lower two Wild Card spots are in the danger zone, as there is still much to be decided in this race. The Red Sox are only a game up on Detroit for the second Wild Card spot and are looking to clinch a playoff berth and lock themselves into that 5 seed in getting to face either the Yankees or Toronto in the Wild Card round. But they could be in danger of missing the playoffs as well, with one team who had been used to winning division titles and avoiding the Wild Card altogether being involved. The Tigers remain a game ahead of the only team on the outside that still has a chance to make it into the postseason on the American League side.

The Houston Astros had their dominant reign of seven straight(not counting 2020) AL West division titles come to an end as they slumped while Seattle surged to take the division from them. The Mariners swept Houston at their oddly-named Daikin Park this past weekend and the Astros lost two out of three games against the vagabond Athletics in West Sacramento. Ending a five-game losing streak on Thursday, Houston kept pace with Detroit, who holds the head-to-head advantage over the Astros. There is really no margin for error for Houston, who also has head-to-head tiebreakers going against them with the other two potential Wild Card teams that could be eliminated in Cleveland and Boston. Being two games behind the Red Sox and one behind the Tigers/Guardians, the Astros have to take care of business this weekend when they play against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif for a three-game series that they need to so badly win(even potentially sweep). The Astros have had plenty of success against the Angels, especially at the Big A, over these past few seasons. So, they have a seemingly easier series than Detroit does. But if they lose the series against the Halos, Houston will be eliminated from postseason contention for the first time since 2016. No ifs, ands or buts. They need to win the series in Anaheim or they are cooked. Even if the Tigers or Cleveland get swept, if they only win one game against the Angels, the Astros are finito.

For the Guardians, they host the Texas Rangers over the weekend, so they have a relatively winnable series as well. If they win the series against Texas and Detroit loses the series against Boston, Cleveland will win their second straight division title and their third in the last four seasons. The Tigers might have to swallow that tough pill of choking the division, but they might have a chance to redeem themselves against Cleveland right away, because if the Astros lose one game against the Angels and they win one game in Boston, Detroit will be in the playoffs. Now there is a chance that the Red Sox miss the postseason in this situation, as if they get swept against the Tigers and Houston sweeps the Halos, then Boston will miss the playoffs. But all the Red Sox need to do is win one game against Detroit and they will have a playoff berth secured. More work will need to be done to lock up the 5 seed, but the Red Sox are in the best position of these three teams currently. For the Astros, the tightrope could not be more thin. They need to sweep the Angels or they need Detroit/Cleveland to get swept while winning two out of three against the Halos. If neither of those things happen, Houston will miss the postseason. What a crazy sequence indeed. Also not to be too mentioning here, but if the Mariners sweep the Dodgers and Toronto and New York both lose their respective series, then Seattle will have home-field advantage in the American League. Who saw that coming? Comes to show when you have the Big Dumper in Cal Raleigh along with some other star hitters and solid pitching from the starters and the relievers, then anything is possible. That has been displayed in this crazy sequence of playoff chases coming down to the wire over the duration of this final weekend of the 2025 MLB season. Let’s watch and see what both leagues’ playoff pictures look like ahead of the beginning of the Wild Card Round on Tues, Sept 30.